What the ransom note won’t say

Hey there! Ever heard of the BlackCat ransomware gang? Well, in March 2024, one of their affiliates shared a story on a cybercrime forum. They were part of a massive attack on Change Healthcare, one of the biggest healthcare data breaches in U.S. history. But here’s the twist – they never received their share of the $22 million ransom payment. The BlackCat operators disappeared with the money, leaving a fake FBI seizure notice behind. Talk about a shady deal!

Now, if we strip away the criminal drama, this almost feels like a classic contractor dispute. It’s like a business deal gone wrong, complete with supply chains, pricing issues, competition, and customers expecting value for their money. Ransomware today operates on this very business logic.

From the outside, ransomware attacks may seem like a simple break-in with a ransom demand. But there’s more to it than meets the eye. The attacks are just the tip of the iceberg. The real action happens behind the scenes, where a whole network of players collaborates to make these attacks successful.

Too cheap to fail

Behind the scenes of ransomware attacks lies a complex operation, almost like a franchise or gig economy. There are developers maintaining ransomware platforms, affiliates paying for access, and brokers selling entry points into corporate networks. Each player has a specific role, making the whole operation efficient and profitable.

But here’s the catch – if your organization sees ransomware incidents as random break-ins, your defenses are missing the bigger picture. These attacks are well-planned, well-resourced, and constantly evolving. It’s not just a one-time event; it’s a sophisticated operation.

The ransomware industry is booming, with attacks on the rise and targets shifting towards smaller organizations with weaker defenses. It’s a volume game now, with more targets and smaller payouts.

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Figure 1. Ransomware detection trend in H1 2025 and H2 2025, seven-day moving average (source: ESET Threat Report H2 2025)

Ransomware is hardly random

Ransomware operations are not just random attacks; they are well-organized, constantly evolving, and highly competitive. The industry thrives on trust among its participants and the incentives that drive them. It’s like a high-stakes game where players are always one step ahead of each other.

The Red Queen effect comes into play here, where defenders and attackers constantly adapt to outsmart each other. The game is always changing, with new techniques like double extortion and social engineering tactics keeping everyone on their toes.

And just like in nature, where species evolve to survive, cybercriminals adapt to stay ahead in the game. It’s a constant race to develop new tools, techniques, and procedures to outwit the defenders.

Reading the market

So, how do you protect your organization in this ever-evolving landscape of ransomware attacks? By understanding the market dynamics, staying updated on the latest threats, and fortifying your security stack against potential attacks.

Ask yourself the right questions – how are defensive products evolving to counter anti-tools? What malicious tools are in use now, and can your security stack defend against them? Stay vigilant, stay informed, and be prepared for whatever the ransomware industry throws your way.

Remember, in the world of ransomware, it’s not just about being secure; it’s about staying one step ahead of the game.

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