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Last August, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) unveiled the first three “post-quantum encryption standards” specifically designed to resist attacks from quantum computers. The fear of traditional encryption methods becoming obsolete due to quantum computing has long been a concern for cryptography experts. With the emergence of quantum computing on the horizon, these new NIST standards mark a significant step towards safeguarding against post-quantum threats.
But is quantum computing truly the encryption-threat it’s often portrayed to be? While quantum computers have the potential to break traditional encryption more efficiently, we are still far from the “No More Secrets” decryption scenario depicted in the 1992 movie Sneakers. Factors such as energy consumption and computing power continue to impose limitations, suggesting that those with access to quantum computers may prioritize other applications, such as scientific research, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare.
Remember the electron microscope theory?
Having immersed myself in digital forensics for an extended period, I’ve gained a unique perspective on the quantum computing challenges. In 1996, Peter Gutman’s white paper, “Secure Deletion of Data from Magnetic and Solid-State Memory,” proposed the possibility of recovering deleted data from a hard drive using an electron microscope. While this concept may have had some validity, the process would have been labor-intensive, resource-demanding, and unreliable. Moreover, advancements in hard drive data storage density quickly rendered the electron microscope method impractical. Subsequent testing has reaffirmed the inefficacy of this approach. The perceived threat prompted the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to implement the “7-pass wipe” method for data erasure to eliminate any potential forensic evidence detectable by an electron microscope. While precautions are warranted for sensitive data, the severity of the threat was exaggerated. A similar trajectory could be unfolding with quantum computing.
The practical reality of quantum computing
Understanding the mechanics of quantum computing is crucial. Contrary to cinematic portrayals, quantum computing is not a magical solution that instantaneously dismantles encryption. It requires specific messages to analyze and decrypt, implying that attackers must possess a clear idea of which messages hold valuable information. With billions of emails and trillions of texts exchanged daily, narrowing down the search scope demands substantial computing power. The key concern lies in the finite nature of computing power. Quantum computing represents the pinnacle of technological advancement, limiting access primarily to nation-states and major corporations like Google, Microsoft, and AI firms. Consequently, the initial accessibility and speed-to-market of quantum computing are constrained, suggesting that nation-states will have finite computing resources at their disposal. The pivotal question remains: Will breaking encryption protocols be their primary utilization of this technology?
The true use cases for quantum
The answer leans towards a tentative “maybe.” The true potential of quantum computing lies in research, economic competitiveness, and global influence. Although quantum computers could be exploited to crack encryption if acquired by hostile entities, it is unlikely to be their primary application. Nations with access to advanced computing models are more inclined to channel resources towards groundbreaking research, economic prosperity, and technological advancements. Quantum computing is poised to revolutionize various industries by facilitating the development of superior materials, catalysts, pharmaceuticals, and space exploration capabilities. The cost-benefit analysis favors the utilization of quantum computing for constructive purposes rather than encryption-breaking endeavors.
While encryption decryption remains a feasible application of quantum computing, it ranks lower on the priority list. Rather than investing exorbitant sums in overhauling cryptographic algorithms preemptively, a pragmatic approach entails evaluating the actual applications of quantum computing. The prevailing narrative of an impending “quantum apocalypse” warrants contextual analysis to discern the realistic implications of this technology.
Rob Lee, Chief of Research and Head of Faculty at SANS Institute, shares his insights.
